MCPS, which has always prided itself on being Maryland’s largest school district and enjoyed a decade-long trend of growth in enrollment, has faced unprecedented dips in the past two years. 

In this year alone, there are about 4,700 less students enrolled than the previous year. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the average high school in Maryland has 1,161 students—meaning, with a little math, that MCPS lost about four high schools’ worth of students. 

Before the pandemic, MCPS had consistently increased in enrollment by about 2,000 students a year. According to the Bethesda Beat, the county was expected to exceed 170,000 students by 2025, but now it is expected to barely reach 166,000 by the 2027-28 school year. 

The pandemic is undoubtedly the largest factor behind this sudden drop in numbers. It has had a multifaceted impact on education, and MCPS is just one system that is experiencing its effects. 

“It seems like the pandemic and parents’ concern about sending their students back into buildings where they could be exposed to the virus has resulted in some of the drop in enrollment,” RM Assistant Principal Robin Wheeler said.  

“COVID does probably have a play in the enrollment count since there are parents who feel unsafe sending their kids to school, so they can look into homeschooling or maybe private school where there are less people,”  RM senior Tao Chen said. 

The Patch reports that when MCPS made school virtual, many parents who needed their children’s learning to be in person decided to enroll them instead in private schools that kept learning in the building. This is especially true of kindergarten, which lost a major 10.29 percent of students because parents decided instead to enroll them in daycares—either because they were working, or concerned about their children’s social development in virtual classes. 

By race, the most unenrolled students are whites, who declined by 6.06 percent, while black, Asian, and Hispanic students declined by 1.85, 0.8, and 0.61 percent, respectively. The significantly larger number of unenrolled white students may be due to the fact that enrolling in private schools was a more financially viable option; the Statistical Atlas shows that the average white family in Montgomery County has greater household income than the other races. 

Another possible reason for the enrollment decline is failure to receive COVID vaccines. MCPS spokesperson Chris Cram told the Bethesda Beat that 97 percent of MCPS students were vaccinated, leaving 3 percent, or 4,770 individuals. Those who failed to be vaccinated by Sept. 30, 2021 were not counted in enrollment numbers, but MCPS successfully applied for and received a 45-day extension lasting into mid-November for families to get vaccinated. 

This dramatic decline in numbers is not a mere loss to MCPS’s reputation as a growing school system. Because public schools are funded by the government on a per-student basis through household property taxes, a decline in the number of students will likely lead to an increase in property taxes to make up for the lack of funding. The lack of funding will hit poorer districts especially hard, leading to exacerbated achievement gaps across the county. 

To lessen the consequences, the Maryland Board of Education signed a waiver that would allow MCPS to count the missing students for funding the 2021-2022 school year. Without it, according to the document, “a substantial number of students… would be excluded from the State Aid calculation for fiscal year 2023.”

The COVID pandemic has had extensive effects, especially on public education. Decreased enrollment is just one of the results. “It shed light on the opportunity gap between wealthier and poorer students and their access to technology and home situations and how that impacts their learning,” RM senior Ariana Kavoossi said. The 2020-2021 school year may have been a trying year, but this year will be the one that unveils the extent of its impact.