Recently, the New York Times and Siena College polled registered voters from six key states that will be very influential to the outcome of the next presidential election.
This poll’s findings have shown that five of six states registered voters will be voting for Donald Trump. Nevada has the largest percent difference, with 11 percent more people saying they will vote for Trump than those who anticipate voting for Joe Biden.
Considering that Biden won 306 of the 538 electoral votes in 2024, this is a distinct turnaround.
“I think it’s a little surprising,” sophomore Sofia Gainer said.
The poll’s results cause worry for some RM students.
“That’s not good. Polls obviously have a potential to be inaccurate so this is not an end all be all but that’s still pretty concerning.” freshman Maya Seligman said.
The poll also recorded if voters felt Biden had the “mental sharpness” to be president, with 35 percent agreeing. However, 54 percent agreed that Trump had the “mental sharpness” required. In light of intense scrutiny on both candidates, this is a glaring weakness for Biden in the upcoming year of campaigning.
RM students wonder if Biden will be able to overcome this negative depiction.
“I think he might be able to, but a lot of hard work has got to be put into that because it already seems like, you know, Trump’s ahead.” Gainer said.
Even so, in October 2022, Biden’s approval ratings were the same as his recent ratings. On both Oct. 4, 2022 and Oct. 8, 2023, Biden had a 40 percent approval rating. The 2022 ratings were right before the midterm elections, in which the Democratic party did better than expected by losing less House seats than predicted and gaining a seat in the senate.
Trump may also face large setbacks in his campaign, taking into account that his trial begins March 4, 2024. This trial is against the legitimacy of Trump’s net worth, due to him allegedly scheming and committing fraud by misvaluing his assets.
Upholding American values such as openness and frankness are often brought up in the evaluation of candidates, and Trump’s case will leave him vulnerable to questioning on the topic. However, the counter argument is that American candidates deserve their own freedoms and privacy, two other key values. Many will vouch that Trump’s business is separate and should be personal.
Either way, considering the general election is over a year away, the results may still be up in the air. Polls from The New York Times are usually reliable, but there is always a chance of pollsters exerting bias.
This means pollsters have to uphold strict procedures to avoid biased results and statistics.
Polling requires several steps and proper sampling can be hard to create. Additionally, pollsters try to avoid leading questions, which are questions that lead the respondent to answer a certain way.
Many pollsters face the issue of the Bradley Effect, which is when respondents are pressured to answer in the socially acceptable way. These vulnerabilities lead to a margin of error that has risen in recent years from 3 percent to 6 percent.
The margin of error is the predicted difference of poll results to election results. It may be determined by survey size, or how underrepresented certain groups may be.
When asked if they thought the polls were a good representation of the future election results the responses varied from, “Not necessarily…as we saw last election, Arizona can go either way. It really depends,” Seligman said.
